Transformations  in
Business & Economics

STUDY ON THE DURATION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CHINA'S MANUFACTURING EXPORT TO THE COUNTRIES ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD
Kangjuan Lv, Liuzheng Chen, Xiaosong Zheng

ABSTRACT. This paper studies the duration of China's manufacturing export to the countries along the Belt and Road through survival analysis, and discloses the influencing factors that affect the duration by using Cox proportional hazards model. Trade relation survival rate is applied to measure the stability of export trade relations. The influencing factors are selected in terms of productivity characteristics and information communication characteristics.
The results reveal that the overall trade relations are stable with the average export duration of 8.53 years. However, there are differences in survival rate in different sub-regions and sub-industries. The importers' economic scale, labor and capital factors, education level, income gap, industrial structure and business environment would have significant impacts on China's manufacturing exports the countries along the Belt and Road. While the influence of exchange rate volatility of the importer is not significant. Finally, some recommendations are achieved for policy makers and enterprises .

KEYWORDS:  The Belt and Road, trade duration, survival analysis, manufacturing export, Cox proportional hazards model.

JEL classification:  R12.