Transformations  in
Business & Economics

THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE ON CARBON EMISSIONS IN EMERGING COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM 30 COUNTRIES
Shijun Zhai, Ranran Wei, Xuehui Zhou, Yan Zhou

ABSTRACT: As important participants in global agricultural trade, the scale and influence of emerging countries continue to expand, and their agricultural activities and trade have a profound impact on global carbon emissions. However, there is a lack of research on the relationship between agricultural trade and carbon emissions in emerging countries. To explore the impact of agricultural trade on carbon emissions in emerging countries, using environmental Kuznets curve theory, panel data from 30 emerging countries worldwide from 2010 to 2020, two-way fixed effects model, and the threshold effect method, the impact of agricultural trade on carbon emissions was analysed. By introducing the threshold variable of the urbanization level, the nonlinear impact of agricultural trade on carbon emissions under the influence of the urbanization level was tested. Results show that the trade of agricultural products in emerging countries has a nonlinear effect on carbon emissions, with a significant inverted U-shaped relationship. The level of economic development plays an important mediating role in the process through which agricultural trade affects carbon emissions. In addition, with the level of urbanization as the threshold effect variable, agricultural trade has a single threshold effect on carbon emissions. The conclusions reveal that emerging countries need to further develop green agriculture, enhance the application of scientific and technological innovation, promote the transformation of energy structure, and achieve emission reduction and carbon reduction.

KEYWORDS:  agricultural trade, carbon emissions, threshold effect, energy structure.

JEL classification:  Q01, Q17, Q54